Friday's June US employment data was as big an upside surprise as was May's to the downside (so there is volatility even in hiring data). As I will say each and every time this data is released, it is one months data and subject to potentially significant revisions. In fact May's was revised down even further. As with everything, it is important to view this with some perspective (over longer periods of time) and the "trend" becomes more clear: employment growth peaked in December of 2014 and has been sliding ever since.
But... US stock markets loved this latest data enough to push markets back to their highs.
Does this excite you or scare you?
Well, let's have a peak at CNN Money's Fear and Greed Index:
Some folks must be excited!
How about over time?
Historically, it appears that it is best not to be buying with the "madding" crowd, but to be patient and prudent and wait for the periods of fear (or extreme fear). And they will come, in time.
Our clients all got their quarterly reports sent last week, I don't think that they will be complaining about our low volatility, patient and prudent strategy!
Feedback, comments, ideas....
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Scott Tomenson,CIM Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist