I have spent the last week digging through as much of the written material that I could find that justifies the world of stock market investing's excitement with the "record highs" announced (it seems) each day for the Dow or the S&P 500.
People much smarter tham I, have been warning of the heightened levels of uncertainty in the post-Brexit world, however the stock market continues to climb the "wall of worry" (an old stock market cliche) as investors appear to be happy to take on increasing levels of risk.
The folks at the forefront, the central bankers of the world really don't know what to expect next (although they continue to announce that they are ready and prepared for anything), but they are thrilled with the abrupt decline in volatility since the Brexit spike. They are all gathering at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers fest in Chengdu, China this weekend.
As a contrarian at heart, this does create quite a conundrum for me, pitting my good fundamental sense against the urge to pinch my nose and hold my breathe and jump in as some advice channels might suggest.
But then I think: what was that rather sensible rule we all were taught when we first began to swim?
If you can't see the bottom, don't jump in.
Then for a reality check, have a look at the fear and greed index:
"Greed" is just coming off the highest level since 2014 (and we know what followed that: a significantly better buying opportunity).
We all want stock markets to go up (because we like any asset that we own to improve in price) and in time, if the fundamentals warrant it, they will. But dont get talked into buying at the highs because the euphoria of the moment and some salesperson (more intent on the sale than your personal well-being) gets the better of you.
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Scott Tomenson,CIM Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist