From yesterdays press release:
"Global economic growth has been a little weaker than expected this year, but the dynamics pointing to a pickup in 2016 and 2017 remain largely intact."
However, if you keep reading... there are some potential issues that could become problematic:
Once again, pinning Canadian economic hopes on the US economy:
"In the United States, the economy is expected to continue growing at a solid pace with particular strength in private domestic demand, which is important for Canadian exports."
And the Canadian consumer:
"Household spending continues to underpin economic activity and is expected to grow at a moderate pace over the projection period."
But what is the consumer / household using to spend?
Record levels of debt. Global debt levels have increased 3 fold over the last year. Canadians are no exception. Oh and the new Canadian Government wants to now join the debt / deficit party.
Lemmings to the cliff?
"Meanwhile, as financial vulnerabilities in the household sector continue to edge higher, risks to financial stability are evolving as expected."
OK folks, this basically says that risks to financial stability are increasing, but as expected? Do they have a strategy for what happens if this "risk" continues to "evolve" at possibibly unexpected levels?
Not so optimistic to me.
Meanwhile the tone being used at most other developed economy central banks is one of "concern" over low economic growth and low inflation brought on by developments in China and other emerging economies.
Not to sound overly alarmist, but central bankers in North America were apparently caught by surprise in 2008 too.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (The Fed) meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, let's see what they might have to say.
Scott Tomenson,CIM Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist