Last Saturday I wrote about US unemployment levels as an indicator of forthcoming recession probability.
Today US Jobless Claims data showed an unexpected increase (to 294,000) for a second straight week, to levels not seen since February of 2015:
One or 2 weeks data may not be completely definitive. However, in light of our increasing probability of a US recession over the next 4 to 6 months, this is data that will now potentially be more market-moving. Jobless Claims are announced each week on Thursday morning.
Interestingly, Jobless Claims data has been historically inversely correlated to the S&P 500. As Jobless Claims fall, the S&P 500 rises and vice versa:
Scott Tomenson,CIM Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist