Terrorist attacks in Brussels, North Korean rockets, Trump's bullies and Canada's budget.
And behind the scenes, as volatility sits at its lowest levels since October, the state of the US Economy is still a wild card!
Wonder why central bankers are so worried (because so much global monetary stimulus does not appear, for the moment, to be doing anything other than reducing volatility)?
Here are 3 charts that worry us about the US economy:
We have talked about wholesale inventory to sales ratios:
and how increased levels have preceded recessions (periods in blue) in the past.
When the ratio of coincident economic indicators to lagging economic indicators falls, it has previously signaled a recession to follow:
Falling corporate profits have also given advance warning of previous recessions:
Corporate profit growth has been declining for the last 3 quarters (of 2015) and are expected to fall for the next 2 (of 2016).
While current levels of volatility have slipped below their longer term averages, this may just be the eerie calm before the storm.
Today is webinar Tuesday at High Rock, we will discuss all of this and more with our clients at 4:15pm (EST) today and post the recorded version at about 5pm (EST). So feel free to listen in at http://highrockcapital.ca/current-edition-of-the-weekly-webinar.html
Scott Tomenson,CIM Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist