Something I track at least once a quarter is US Bank Assets. Their assets include such things as government securities, a host of different loans (commercial and industrial, real estate, loans and leases) and the largest catch-all, Bank Credit.
Today, we will look at the overall Bank Credit metric (reported once per week) to see what is happening. The reason why this is so important is because when banks lend (as you will see) the economy grows and the stock market follows higher. When banks slow down lending, the opposite occurs. Cause and Effect.
Bank Credit (white line) and the S+P 500 (yellow line) over the past 10 years with a reasonably high correlation to the naked eye:
All good? Well if we shorten the Bank Credit chart up a fair bit from 10 years to two years, we see a different picture forming. Note how Bank Credit, although still at it's all time highs, is not only decelerating, but actually decreasing?:
And now we can look at the same chart overlayed with the S+P 500 across the last two years:
Something to start watching a little more often than once per quarter.