No, not Trump, Weinstein, or even the NFL.
More importantly than all that "noise" is the US economy. Here we will look at US Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits vs US Recessions.
Initial claims are reported weekly as the number of people who are filing jobless claims during the week for the first time. To be honest, I am not sure how accurate this statistic is week over week but we are going to look at it over the past few decades so I think it is safe to assume the numbers are valid. Jobless claims are shown in the graph below as the yellow line and are on the left hand scale in hundreds of thousands of people.
Recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth (GDP) and are easily seen in the graph below as the shaded blue areas with a white outline.
A few things to note:
The dotted red arrow on the far right simply shows something to watch. I think after 8.5 years of economic expansion, it is time to look at recession indicators like jobless claims. To be clear, we are not trying to predict when a recession will happen (not that smart) but rather to begin to manage our risk appropriately in advance.