Two weeks ago, I wrote about the long term trend in longer term interest rates as lower due to slower economic growth, low wage growth and low inflation expectations. This has been in place since the 1980's. Betting rates will go higher is actually the contrary bet.
And in January, I presented a chart I created that shows every time the FOMC commenced a QE program, rates went up..counter-intuitively. And every time they ended a QE program, rates actually went lower (as they are today with the Taper nearing its end), again counter-intuitively, I didn't explain it quite right at the time but the next section does a pretty good job. See first chart below:
And I just read a similar type of study which shows the Fed's balance sheet vs 30yr and 10yr rates. They describe the reason that rates rally when the Fed's balance sheet shrinks is due to the fact that inflation expectations drop. Inflation is Enemy #1 of Govt bonds so when those expectations drop, so do rates. See the 30yr and 10yr charts below according to the Fed's balance sheet expectations.