The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) just released their full report on the state of the housing market in the GTA for the month of June. As a bit (much shorter) of a follow-on to my four-part blog postings on the City of Toronto Housing Market (highrockcapital.ca/pauls-blog/city-of-toronto-housing-introduction-and-part-1-of-a-4-part-series) I thought I would give a quick summary of what came out for June in the City of Toronto.
Detached homes were down sequentially at 2,196 in June vs 2,242 in May. The average Active Listings for the past 6 Junes is 1,944.
Semi-Detached were 487 in June vs 515 in May and an average over the past 6 Junes of 388.
Condos Active Listings actually increased to 2,708 in June vs 2,509 in May and an average over the past 6 Junes of 4,487.
Overall, including all types of homes, Active Listings still increased to 6,000 in June vs 5,829 in May (vs 6 past June average of 7,225). All of the increase in overall Active Listings in June came from the Condo market.
Detached new listings came off pretty substantially at 2,096 in June vs 3,123 in May but vs the 6 past June average of 1,371 still historically high for the month of June.
Semi-detached came in at 561 for June vs 843 in May and a 6 past June average of 374.
Condos came in at 2,971 for June vs 3,616 in May and a 6 pst June average of 2,097.
Overall, including all types of homes, New Listings dropped from 8,451 in May to 6,295 in June (vs 6 past June average of 4,276). The biggest drop in New Listings comes from Detached homes declining substantially.
Detached sales were 848 in June vs May at 1,146 and 6 past June average at 1,256.
Semi-detached sales were 273 in June vs 348 in May.
Condo sales were 1,702 in June vs 2,038 in May.
Overall, for all types of homes, Sales are -20% mom (month over month) and -31% yoy (year over year).
(I focused more on Detached so don't have 6yr averages for semis and condos but both are down from previous 2yrs).
Detached prices were $1,386,524 in June vs $1,503,868 in May and April's peak at $1,578,542. This mom decline is -8% and a yoy increase still in place of 10%. From the April peak, prices are -12%.
Semi-detached were $987,404 in June vs $1,062,318 in May and April's peak at $1,104,047. This mom decline is -7% and a yoy increase still in place of 8%. From the April peak, prices are -11%.
Condos were $552,679 in June vs $564,828 in May and April's peak at $578,280. This mom decline is -2.2% and yoy increase still in place of 23%. From the April peak, prices are -4%.
Overall, for all types of homes, prices are -8% mom and +7% yoy.
Months of Supply
Detached months supply (Active Listings/Sales) increased in June to 2.6 vs May at 2.0 and vs a 6yr average of 1.7 and peak over that 6yrs at 3.1.
Semis are at 1.8 in June vs May at 1.5.
Condos are at 1.6 in June vs 1.5 in May.
As expected. Sales down and prices down but New Listings coming off quickly.
Active Listings ramped up huge in April and May but actually came off slightly (all in Detached and Semis while Condos still increased) in June. Looks like a peak on a chart basis.
New Listings coming off hard might just provide a slight bit of positive news for the market starting to finding it's footing. Again, the biggest decline in New Listings came in Detached although Semis and Condo New Listings were down too.
These two metrics leave the ratios of Sales/Active Listings still declining mom but the Sales/New Listings actually increasing mom for all home types.
Bottom-line - I can tell you, anecdotally, from the midnight MLS search of New Listings we get, that the Listings being emailed each night with our search criteria are now down to one, maybe two, listings vs last April and May when we saw 6-10 listings. I would suggest that both buyers and sellers are starting to act a bit cagey. Buyers will want to wait to see if prices continue to come off while sellers know they missed an opportunity already and have clearly pulled both existing and new listings. At some point, the market will find an equilibrium. Prices are likely to continue to come off through the seasonally slow summer period before that equilibrium is found.
An asset is worth what someone else will pay for it.